What happened in the drivers' market?

Right after the tense Belgian Grand Prix, as the summer break in the racing calendar began, I decided to take a look at the state of the drivers' market and analyse the few seats that were still up for the taking and the few that, while technically filled, still raised some questions.

If you missed the two articles on the topic and want to take a look back at my thoughts from the warm July: 

The Drivers' Market Pre-Summer Analysis (Part 1)

The Drivers' Market Pre-Summer Analysis (Part 2)

Today, I want to look at some of the speculations I made in those articles and compare them to the state of the drivers' market now, a few weeks away from the first race of the 2025 season. Let's start with the most important question: Which teams stayed the same? 

Surprisingly enough, only half of them.

After shaking up the world of motorsports with the signing of Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari secured a very strong lineup between the 7-time World Champion, and "the predestined" Charles Leclerc, for whom the 2024 season was the very best one. A similar situation could be seen in Williams, who also had their long-term, reliable driver, joined by a new force. For them, the addition to the team was Carlos Sainz, a driver who had his spot taken by the aforementioned Hamilton.

McLaren's driver pairing has been known for quite a while. Lando Norris has been with the team since the very start of his Formula 1 career and decided to re-sign before the 2024 season even started. His teammate, Oscar Piastri, debuted in 2023 and impressed the team enough to secure a contract extension before his rookie season ended. Due to their stable situation, the two were entirely exempt from the chaos of the silly season, as were the drivers of Aston Martin. Both Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso were confirmed to be staying with the team for the upcoming season. 

The last team that hasn't been affected by the changes that occurred since the beginning of the summer break is Haas, although in their case, the situation was a bit different than in the other four teams as their lineup changed completely between the 2024 and the 2025 season. Instead of Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg, Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman will fill the seats of the American team. 

Now that we know what stayed the same, what changed?

RED BULL

"Max Verstappen, the reigning champion, is signed with the team until 2028 but (...) whispers around the paddock said that Sergio Perez would be replaced for the 2025 season. The main candidates for his seat seemed to be the other drivers of the Red Bull family, namely Daniel Ricciardo, Yuki Tsunoda, and Liam Lawson." 

Sergio Perez did part ways with the team after a less-than-perfect 2024 season, leaving his spot open for the taking. For a long time, it looked like Daniel Ricciardo was being considered for the position, but the dream of Red Bull's prodigal son returning to the team was cut short once he was let go from RB, in favour of Liam Lawson. 

Without his name attached to the free seat, the fight boiled down to the aforementioned Liam Lawson and the second driver signed to the junior team, Yuki Tsunoda.  The consensus among fans seemed to be that it was Tsunoda who should get his chance in Red Bull, due to his solid performance and general experience, but he did not get the coveted promotion. In the end, having completed only a few full races in Formula 1 thus far, Lawson will be the one to spend 2025 as Verstappen's teammate. 

VISA CASHAPP RB

"Yuki Tsunoda is confirmed for the next season while the other seat remains free. But beyond the surface, the sticky predicament of the Red Bull family is anything but clear. There are four seats to be shared between the two teams and five drivers are mentioned in relation to them. We have the obvious contenders: Verstappen, Perez, Tsunoda, and Ricciardo. Then comes Liam Lawson." 

Staying within the Red Bull family, we can move onto VCARB. When I was writing my first article, Daniel Ricciardo participated in the races alongside Tsunoda, but while the younger driver had a contract for 2025, the same could not be said for the Australian. Only a couple of races later, not having performed up to the standards the team had set for him, Ricciardo was dropped by VCARB and his seat, along with a signed contract for 2025, went to Liam Lawson. 

So, for the last races of 2024, Lawson and Tsunoda made up the team's lineup, both with contracts signed beyond Abu Dhabi. Of course, we now know that their situation was still subject to change. As I have mentioned in the paragraph relating to Red Bull, it was Lawson who got promoted to the senior team, leaving a seat in VCARB for a fresh, new face: Isaac Hadjar, a runner up in the 2024 F2 championship. 

KICK SAUBER

"So who is confirmed [for next season]? The answer to that is Haas' Nico Hulkenberg, who will be joining the season in 2025 and staying for 2026 (...). For now, the second spot remains open (...). Both of the current Kick drivers, neither of whom have contracts with any other team, are viable options (...). There is also the possibility of an outside driver being brought in, maybe in the form of F2 champion, Theo Pourchaire."

In the end, when it comes to the second Sauber seat, I missed a mark but not by a lot. While it isn't Theo Purchaire who will drive alongside Nico Hulkenberg, it is an outsider and a Formula 2 champion. The new addition to the team that is soon going to become Audi is Gabriel Bortoletto, the winner of the 2024 F2 championship. He is supported by Fernando Alonso as he has joined the Spanish driver's management company in 2022. 

ALPINE

"So who will be Gasly's new teammate? There isn't an immediate answer coming to mind, as the French team's second seat is one of the most uncertain ones, but Jack Doohan seems to be the frontrunner."

And a frontrunner he was as it was indeed Jack Doohan who got signed by the team. He even had a chance to already take part in one race when he replaced Esteban Ocon for the last weekend of the 2024 season. This was quite a controversial decision as many fans felt it was disrespectful of the team to prevent a driver that has been a part of their team for years from getting a proper send off. It wasn't a great end for Ocon but it wasn't a great beginning for Doohan who, through no fault of his own, was the target of quite a lot of anger, coming from disappointed Alpine fans.

But just because Doohan has the seat, doesn't mean he is sure to keep it. Franco Colapinto, previously a driver for Williams, joined Alpine as a reserve driver and very quickly rumours began spreading that he was a possible replacement for the young Australian. Now, the consensus seems to be that Alpine is giving Doohan a sort of a 'trial' period and if he does not deliver on their expectations, the seat will go to the Argentinian.

MERCEDES

"With Hamilton leaving after more than a decade of being a part of the team, Mercedes needs to find the best possible teammate for George Russell, a driver who has a seat at least until the end of the 2025 season and probably way beyond (...) The main candidate for the position, according to some sources already all but confirmed, is Andrea Kimi Antonelli."

To the surprise of very few, the Mercedes-backed racing wonder did get signed by the team. While some people still believe that promoting him to one of the main teams at such a young age (he is currently eighteen) is a mistake, others are certain that he will do great things behind the 'wheel'. For now, he is contracted to remain in Mercedes until the end of 2025, but if he finds his footing in Formula 1, it's almost certain that he'll stay with the team for much longer. 

As you can see, some things changed completely between the summer break and the end of the season, but some stayed exactly the same. Now, there are only a few weeks left until we get to see the new pairings on track. The question is, which one of them will come out on top?