The drivers' market: Pre-summer analysis (Part 2)

In my previous article, I discussed five teams on the grid. What about the other ones? Are they any less interesting? That's doubtful, not when the likes of Mercedes and Haas still remain to be covered. There is much to be said about each of the teams, no matter if they already have their confirmed lineup or are still keeping us in the dark.  So without much further ado, let's get into the analysis. 

ALPINE

For the past few seasons, the heavily French team was sporting a fully French lineup, having signed Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon. But the season hasn't been easy for them. Their Renault engines don't seem to be up to par with those used by other teams and Alpine can be seen falling behind in the order. There is also a big problem with staff either leaving or being let go. It seems like every other week we are seeing another announcement, the most recent one relating to the replacement of their team principal, Bruno Famin, by Oliver Oakes. 

What impact did the turbulent start of the season have on the driver's market? Well, with the tension that was building up between the two drivers, both on and off track, it became clear that keeping both of them on the team would be incredibly hard, if not downright impossible. Pierre Gasly ended up being the one who extended his contract 'beyond 2025' and Esteban Ocon was announced to have been let go. For a good few weeks, it wasn't certain where the driver would find himself next season but a few weeks ago it was revealed that he'd be joining the American-owned Hass. 

So who will be Gasly's new teammate? There isn't an immediate answer coming to mind, as the French team's second seat is one of the most uncertain ones. Jack Doohan seems to be the frontrunner. He is currently Alpine's reserve driver and he has previously proven himself in the lower formulas, achieving P3 in 2023's Formula 2 championship. Mick Schumacher is also a plausible option, especially given his ties to Mercedes as Alpine is currently considering exchanging their Renault engines for the ones used by Mercedes. As with all the other teams, current unsigned drivers, such as Valtteri Bottas or Logan Sargeant, are also an option. 

MERCEDES

With Hamilton leaving after more than a decade of being a part of the team, Mercedes needs to find the best possible teammate for George Russell, a driver who has a seat at least until the end of the 2025 season and probably well beyond. And the shoes left by a 7-time world champion are big ones to fill. 

The main candidate for the position, according to some sources already all but confirmed, is Andrea Kimi Antonelli, a Mercedes-backed racing wonder who is currently competing in his rookie season of Formula 2. He was promoted to the series straight from Italian F4, having skipped F3 entirely. At 17 years old, he is an incredibly impressive driver, placing 7th in the championship with a car that hasn't quite been up to par with some of the other ones ran in F2. The one concern that people have is whether next year is too early for such a young talent to be pushed into the highest level of motor racing. After all, there have already been stories of drivers with impressive careers who received an early promotion and underperformed at the top level. 

But if not Antonelli then who? At one point or another, before the spots on the 2025 season's grid began filling out, most of the drivers without contracts have been mentioned as possible candidates. One by one they dropped away, dedicating themselves to other teams. Now, the top name and one that could entirely shake up the drivers market is Max Verstappen, whose predicament I've already explored in my previous article and who is very much wanted by Toto Wolff, Mercedes' team principal. Both Mercedes' reserve drivers, Mick Schumacher and Frederic Vest could also step in if the situation called for it. Some fans hope for the return of an old driver heavily connected to the team, Valtteri Bottas who, for now, does not have a seat beyond Abu Dhabi. 

HAAS

We already know that Haas' lineup will change completely. Both in 2023 and 2024 we saw an experienced pair of slightly older drivers, Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg. At first, it wasn't quite sure if the two would be able to find some common ground given that they had some less-than-friendly interactions in the past, but they turned out to make quite a good team. Or rather, as good as they could, given Haas' terrible state. Before the 2024 season, a lot of changes were made within the team with the biggest one being the firing of Gunther Steiner and the hiring of a new team principal, Ayao Komatsu. Through his guidance, Haas managed to climb out of the bottom of the constructors' championship and became one of the most consistent teams from the lower field. 

Nico Hulkenberg will be moving to Kick Sauber and Kevin Magnussen is also set to depart the team at the end of the season although his destination remains unknown. Who will take their place? Current Formula 2 contender, reserve driver for both Haas and Ferrari, and a member of the Ferrari Driver Academy, Ollie Bearman. He is no stranger to the team and no stranger to driving an F1 car as, aside from taking part in multiple free practices, he replaced Carlos Sainz during this year's Saudi Arabian Grand Prix when the Spaniard needed to pull out of the race because of a severe case of appendicitis. Bearman stepped in and put in a commendable performance, scoring 7 points for the team. Many say that it was that day that solidified his place in Formula 1.

The second seat will go to Esteban Ocon, the previously mentioned Alpine driver. It's hard to say how the two will work together and whether the lineup of one experienced and one rookie driver will pay off for the team but Haas seems to be on an upward trend and they show no signs of slowing down. One thing is certain. Together, Ocon and Bearman will make the tallest pairing on the grid. 

ASTON MARTIN

Aston is currently running a lineup of Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll. While no one can deny the first his claim to a seat, even given the Spaniard's age, the same cannot be said about his teammate. The Canadian has been a subject of conversation for quite a while now, given that his father is the owner of the team and therefore his spot is relatively safe, no matter his performance. Last year the gap between the two was significant. This season, it seems to have decreased. It isn't easy being compared to a 2-time world champion. 

Either way, whether people believe he deserves to have a seat or not, he will be staying with the team for the foreseeable future and, hopefully, proving that he truly deserves to be there. So will Alonso. At the beginning of the season, Fernando was linked to multiple seats but decided to say with Aston at least until the end of 2026.  By the time his contract expires, he will be 45 years old. 

VISA CASHAPP RB 

The last team left to cover is... RB? Racing Bulls? Visa Cashapp RB? Whatever you take to calling the former Alpha Tauri (why they decided not to keep the beautiful name is beyond me), there is much to be said about their complicated situation. At first glance it seems rather simple: Yuki Tsunoda is confirmed for next season while the other seat remains free. But beyond the surface, the sticky predicament of the Red Bull family is anything but.

There are four seats to be shared between the two teams and five drivers often mentioned in relation to them. We have the obvious contenders: Verstappen, Perez, Tsunoda, and Ricciardo. Then comes Liam Lawson, a very talented Red Bull junior who proved that he was more than capable of driving in Formula One when he replaced Ricciardo for a few races during the 2023 season. He is currently a reserve driver for both Red Bull Racing and RB. 

Many believe that the dilemma of which driver to keep and which one to let go would be solved by the firing of Perez, putting Ricciardo in his seat, and freeing up a slot for the young Lawson in what is supposed to be a junior team. It didn't happen during the 2024 season, but can we expect the move after Abu Dhabi? 

The market is ever-evolving and although technically we should learn about the fates of all unsigned drivers soon, its unpredictable nature can still find a way to surprise us. After all, there have been situations in which a supposedly secure contract is suddenly broken and a new name appears, seemingly out of nowhere. One thing is sure: next year's grid will greatly differ from the one we've been following for the past two seasons. Will the changes work out in favour of the teams? To find the answer to that question, all we have to do is wait.